US Voter Pessimism About Economy Could Be Problem for Harris, History Shows

Amid a tight race for the presidency, Americans’ views on the economy could spell trouble for Vice President Kamala Harris, experts told Newsweek.
Between April and June, the U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.8 percent, an improvement from the previous quarter’s 1.4 percent, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Meanwhile, 114,000 jobs were added to the economy in July alone, while inflation reached its lowest level in more than three years, data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed.
Despite these positive economic indicators, surveys reveal that many voters remain pessimistic about the economy.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), which measures the overall health and outlook of consumers’ attitudes toward the economy, shows that the consumer sentiment score for 2024 stands at 67.9.
The CSI is calculated using data from monthly surveys that ask U.S. households about their views on current and future economic conditions. The survey includes five key questions—two about current economic conditions and three about future expectations.
Responses are scored based on their optimism or pessimism compared to a baseline year (1966, set at 100). The scores from these questions are then combined into two sub-indices: the Index of Current Economic Conditions and the Index of Consumer Expectations. The overall CSI is a weighted average of these two categories.
Typically, in years when the incumbent party has won reelection, the score has stood at about 90.3. For example, when George Bush won reelection in 2004, the score stood at about 92.8.
However, by 2008 when Barack Obama was elected following Bush’s second term, it stood at about 55. In November 2020, when Donald Trump lost reelection to Joe Biden, the score stood at about 76.
When consumer sentiment falls below 80, it often signals significant public dissatisfaction, which historically leads to incumbent defeats. Such could be the case for Harris, who took over from President Joe Biden as the candidate when he ended his reelection campaign in July amid concerns about his age and cognitive ability.
“In general, voters punish incumbents [and the incumbent party] for poor economic performance. Voters continue to rate the economy as the top issue and economic pessimism is no doubt a cause of concern for the Harris-Walz campaign,” Amber Wichowsky, assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at Loyola University Chicago, told Newsweek.
Polls have consistently shown that the economy is at the top of voters’ minds in this election.
The most recent poll by YouGov and The Economist, conducted between September 1 and 3, showed that inflation, jobs and the economy were the most important issues to voters, with 38 percent of participants saying so.
The most recent New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted between September 3 and 6, showed the same trend, with 22 percent of likely voters choosing the economy and jobs as the most important issue, ranking above every other issue.
But polls have varied in their findings on which candidate voters trust most with the economy.
Polling released by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan this month found that voters trust Harris more than Trump on the economy, with 42 percent of those surveyed saying they trust the vice president more handle the economy, regardless of their opinion of her and how they plan to vote, while 41 percent chose Trump.
However, only 12 percent of respondents said that they believe Harris’ economic policies will leave them “much better off” financially, while 22 percent said the same for Trump’s policies. Of the 1,001 registered voters surveyed, only 25 percent reported positive economic conditions in the country.
Other polls have found Trump significantly ahead of Harris on economic issues. A CNBC All-America Economic Survey from August 8, for example, found that voters think they will be financially better off under Trump than Harris by a 2-to-1 margin.
Nonetheless, Harris is still polling higher than Biden on economic issues, with the 81-year-old polling at about 35 percent on economic issues, according to the Financial Times and the University of Michigan.
The poll also found that a majority of respondents said Harris should diverge from the president’s economic policies, with 60 percent saying she should make major changes or take a different approach.
Harris’ economic policies are largely similar to Biden’s. Like her boss, she has supported building more homes to drive down prices, ease health care costs and crack down on corporations that Democrats have blamed for driving up grocery prices. However, Harris’ economic policies have been described as more aggressive than the president’s.
Harris’ housing plan, for example, calls for constructing 3 million new homes in a bid to alleviate a supply crunch that’s driven up prices. That is more than the 2 million that Biden laid out in his own plan this year.
Harris’ health care agenda aims to extend the insulin cost cap to all patients, rather than limiting it to older Americans who are currently covered.
She has also proposed expanding the child tax credit to $6,000 for certain families with children—nearly double the amount that Biden secured during his first year in office.
“She’s doubling down on efforts to support lower- and middle-class families and small businesses and pay for it with tax increases on the wealthy and corporations,” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, told USA Today.
However, even though there are notable differences between the economic policies of the vice president and president, voters might still evaluate Harris based on Biden’s economic policies, which could negatively impact her chances at the ballot box in November, according to Michael Steven Lewis-Beck, a distinguished professor of political science at the University of Iowa.
“Many voters are likely registering economic opinions on the basis of what Biden did, since it is known that opinions about economic performance occur with a lag of three to six months ago, when she was not president. At this point, much of this perception is residue from perceptions of Biden,” Lewis-Beck told Newsweek.
This could also hurt Harris in the swing states, which are crucial for Harris to win if she wants to secure victory.
“Economic dissatisfaction could prove decisive in battleground states,” Quantus Polling wrote in a blog post.
Polling published by Redfield & Wilton Strategies in August showed that voters in all seven swing states trust Trump more than Harris to bring down the cost of household essentials, with between 42 percent and 48 percent of voters in each of the battleground states choosing the former president.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris currently has the lead in five of the battleground states—Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada—while Trump leads in Nevada and Arizona.
However, pollster Nate Silver’s model shows Harris leading in only Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, while the candidates are tied in North Carolina and Nevada and Trump leads in Arizona and Georgia.
RealClearPolitics puts Harris ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, while they are tied in Nevada and Trump has the lead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
FiveThirtyEight’s latest forecast shows that Trump is predicted to win in Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina, while Harris is projected to win in the other four swing states. But Silver’s forecast shows Trump is projected to win in all seven of the battleground states.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.